ASML Q2 2026: EUV Demand Surges as Intel Leads High-NA Adoption
ASML’s Q2 2026 results highlight accelerating demand for semiconductor manufacturing equipment as AI accelerators, advanced logic processors, and high-bandwidth memory continue to drive fab expansion.
The Dutch lithography equipment leader reported quarterly revenue of €9.33 billion, up 21% year over year and 6% sequentially. Net income increased 27% year over year to €2.92 billion, with both figures exceeding market expectations.
Beyond the headline financial results, ASML’s latest update provides several important signals for the semiconductor industry. China remains a stable contributor to overall demand, installed-base services are benefiting from customers seeking higher fab utilization, and demand for EUV and immersion DUV equipment continues to strengthen.
The most strategically significant development is Intel’s adoption of ASML High-NA EUV technology for selected Intel 18A products. ASML views the milestone as evidence that High-NA EUV is progressing toward volume-production deployment.
📈 ASML Revenue Surges as Fab Utilization Drives Service Demand #
ASML generated €9.33 billion in Q2 revenue, comprising €6.56 billion from system sales and €2.76 billion from installed-base management.
System sales increased approximately 17% year over year, while installed-base revenue rose 32%. The installed-base business significantly exceeded ASML’s guidance, generating approximately €300 million more revenue than expected.
Installed-base management becomes a major growth driver #
CFO Roger Dassen attributed the upside primarily to customers seeking to maximize production efficiency from their existing equipment.
As semiconductor manufacturing processes become increasingly complex, customers can improve effective fab capacity not only by purchasing new scanners but also by upgrading and optimizing equipment already in operation.
This creates a valuable recurring-revenue component for ASML while simultaneously indicating strong utilization across the global semiconductor manufacturing base.
ASML expects installed-base revenue to reach approximately €2.9 billion in Q3 2026.
Q3 and full-year guidance moves higher #
For Q3 2026, ASML expects:
- Revenue of €11 billion to €12 billion
- Gross margin of 55% to 57%
- Installed-base revenue of approximately €2.9 billion
For the full year, ASML raised its revenue guidance to €43 billion–€45 billion.
The upper end of that range already exceeds the lower boundary of ASML’s previously communicated €44 billion–€60 billion 2030 revenue ambition, highlighting how quickly the company’s near-term business has accelerated.
🌏 China Demand Remains Stable While Logic Leads #
ASML expects China-related revenue to represent approximately 20% of total sales for full-year 2026.
According to Dassen, Chinese demand is growing broadly in line with ASML’s overall business, with incremental demand concentrated primarily in equipment for mature-process logic manufacturing.
Mature-node investment remains strategically important #
The current Chinese equipment demand profile is closely associated with semiconductor supply-chain localization and domestic manufacturing expansion.
Although leading-edge EUV systems remain subject to export restrictions, mature-node fabs continue to require substantial lithography capacity for applications across automotive, industrial, consumer, networking, and general-purpose electronics.
In Q2, mainland China accounted for approximately €900 million, or 14% of ASML’s system sales by shipment region.
South Korea represented the largest regional contribution at approximately €2.8 billion, or 43%, while Taiwan contributed approximately €2.0 billion, or 30%.
The regional mix therefore shifted materially toward South Korea and Taiwan during the quarter, while China remained a significant but smaller contributor.
🔬 91 Lithography Systems Shipped in Q2 #
ASML shipped 86 new lithography systems and five used systems during Q2, for a total of 91 scanners. Total unit shipments increased approximately 20% year over year.
The product mix was heavily weighted toward advanced lithography and immersion DUV systems.
EUV remains the primary revenue engine #
ASML shipped 16 EUV systems during the quarter, generating approximately €3.74 billion in revenue.
EUV represented roughly 57% of total system revenue, with an average selling price of approximately €230 million per system.
Other scanner categories included:
| Technology | Units Shipped | Revenue | Share of System Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUV | 16 | €3.74B | 57% |
| ArFi immersion DUV | 23 | €1.90B | 29% |
| ArF dry DUV | 8 | ~€260M | 4% |
| KrF | 35 | €390M | 6% |
| I-Line | 9 | €70M | 1% |
The figures demonstrate the substantial revenue concentration of ASML’s business around EUV despite lower unit volumes compared with mature DUV technologies.
Metrology and inspection demand is accelerating #
ASML’s metrology and inspection business contributed approximately €200 million in Q2 revenue.
Demand is increasing as advanced process nodes require tighter process control and increasingly sophisticated defect detection.
Optical metrology and e-beam inspection technologies are also gaining penetration as manufacturers attempt to maintain yield while pushing transistor density and manufacturing complexity higher.
ASML expects combined revenue from immersion DUV and metrology and inspection activities to grow approximately 25% year over year in 2026.
🧠 AI and Memory Expansion Accelerate Lithography Demand #
The semiconductor industry’s AI expansion is increasingly visible in ASML’s order outlook.
Logic manufacturers are expanding 3nm capacity for next-generation AI accelerators while also adding 4nm and 5nm capacity for companion chips and supporting processors. At the same time, 2nm production ramps are accelerating for future HPC and mobile applications.
Some customers have already begun 1.4nm R&D programs and equipment procurement planning.
Advanced logic increases lithography intensity #
As process nodes shrink, manufacturers require more sophisticated patterning and increasingly complex process flows.
ASML expects full-year system sales to advanced logic fabs to increase more than 25% year over year.
The transition from 3nm and 2nm toward 1.4nm is particularly important because each generation increases the amount of advanced lithography required to manufacture competitive logic devices.
This creates structural demand for ASML’s most advanced equipment even if semiconductor unit volumes remain cyclical.
Memory becomes another major growth engine #
Memory manufacturers are also increasing capital expenditure as DDR and HBM prices strengthen.
The construction of large-scale memory fabs is expected to add substantial lithography demand over the coming years. As memory processes become more advanced, manufacturers can increasingly use Low-NA EUV to replace portions of complex multi-patterning DUV flows.
ASML expects full-year memory-related system sales to increase more than 75% year over year.
This represents a significant change from an AI-driven growth story centered primarily on logic chips. HBM and other advanced memory technologies are now becoming an equally important driver of semiconductor equipment investment.
⚙️ EUV Shipments and Capacity Expansion Accelerate #
ASML expects approximately 65 Low-NA EUV systems to ship during 2026, with total EUV system sales projected to increase more than 45% year over year.
The company expects immersion DUV shipments to reach approximately 130 units during the year.
ASML prepares for another capacity expansion cycle #
ASML expects its 2026 Low-NA EUV production capacity to reach approximately 65 systems.
Orders for 2027 are already substantially committed, prompting the company to plan approximately 30% additional capacity next year.
ASML is also evaluating another 30% expansion for 2028 in response to long-term customer demand.
The company expects to reach approximately 110 Low-NA EUV systems of annual capacity in 2028 primarily by optimizing and repurposing existing cleanroom and factory space rather than relying exclusively on new facilities.
DUV capacity expands alongside EUV #
The growth of EUV does not eliminate demand for DUV.
ASML expects immersion DUV capacity to reach approximately 130 systems in 2026, with another 30% expansion planned for 2027 and a further 30% increase under evaluation for 2028.
Advanced fabs continue to use multiple lithography technologies within the same manufacturing flow. Consequently, growth in EUV capacity can create additional demand for complementary DUV, metrology, and inspection equipment.
🚀 Intel Adopts High-NA EUV for 18A Production #
One of the most significant developments in ASML’s latest update is Intel’s adoption of High-NA EUV technology.
Intel Foundry plans to use ASML High-NA EUV systems at its Intel 18A process node to manufacture selected Intel Core Ultra Series 3 processors.
High-NA EUV moves closer to volume production #
ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet described the Intel collaboration as evidence that High-NA EUV is ready for adaptation to volume manufacturing.
High-NA EUV increases numerical aperture compared with conventional Low-NA EUV, enabling finer patterning resolution.
Its significance extends beyond simply achieving smaller features. The technology could allow advanced fabs to reduce the number of patterning steps required for certain critical layers, potentially improving process complexity, cycle time, and manufacturing economics.
ASML expects four to five High-NA EUV systems to contribute revenue during full-year 2026.
E and F systems target the next process generations #
ASML’s next-generation EUV systems will increasingly consist of E and F models, with the E model expected to represent the majority of 2027 shipments.
The company expects the older D-model inventory to be largely or completely depleted during 2026.
The newer E and F systems offer higher throughput and improved production efficiency. When measured by wafer throughput capacity rather than unit count, their effective operational capacity is expected to increase by approximately 45%, substantially exceeding the expected 30% increase in physical system volume.
ASML’s F model is specifically positioned for next-generation 2nm and 1.4nm manufacturing and is expected to become an important tool for customers expanding future advanced-node capacity.
💶 EUV Pricing Could Rise as Throughput Improves #
ASML continues to use value-based pricing for its EUV systems while improving manufacturing efficiency and tool throughput.
The company sees long-term room for price increases, particularly as newer generations provide significantly greater productive capacity.
However, pricing changes cannot be implemented immediately because ASML operates with exceptionally long equipment order and delivery cycles.
Higher throughput changes equipment economics #
A higher-performance EUV system can generate more wafer capacity without requiring a proportional increase in the number of scanners.
This means customers may evaluate equipment purchases based on the cost per wafer of effective production capacity rather than simply the purchase price of an individual machine.
ASML’s newer E and F platforms therefore provide a basis for higher average selling prices while potentially improving customer economics through greater throughput.
This relationship between throughput and system value is also a key factor supporting ASML’s long-term pricing strategy.
💰 Gross Margin and Cash Flow Strengthen #
ASML reported a quarterly gross margin of 54%, up 0.3 percentage points year over year and one percentage point sequentially.
Cash generation also improved substantially.
The company ended the quarter with approximately €6.67 billion in cash and equivalents, while operating cash flow reached €1.7 billion. That compares with €750 million in the same quarter of the previous year and negative €2.19 billion in the preceding quarter.
ASML returned approximately €2.12 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases during the quarter.
The combination of strong demand, improving gross margins, and recovering cash generation provides the company with substantial financial flexibility as it expands production capacity.
🔍 Conclusion: ASML Benefits From a Broadening Semiconductor Capex Cycle #
ASML’s Q2 2026 results indicate that the current semiconductor equipment expansion is becoming broader and more durable.
AI accelerator demand continues to drive advanced logic investment, while HBM and other memory technologies are creating a second major source of fab expansion. At the same time, installed-base upgrades, immersion DUV demand, and metrology and inspection requirements are adding further revenue streams.
The most important strategic development is the progression of High-NA EUV toward volume manufacturing, with Intel’s adoption of the technology at 18A providing a significant industry validation point.
ASML’s planned capacity increases for 2027 and 2028 indicate that customers are making long-term commitments rather than simply responding to a short-lived demand spike.
However, the company’s long-term growth remains tied to semiconductor capital expenditure cycles. Memory pricing, logic-chip demand, government incentives, export controls, and global trade policy can all influence the timing of fab investments.
For now, the combination of AI infrastructure expansion, advanced-node transitions, HBM growth, and increasing lithography intensity provides ASML with a powerful structural demand environment. The key question is no longer whether semiconductor manufacturers need more advanced lithography, but how quickly global fab capacity can expand to absorb the industry’s next wave of AI-driven computing demand.